My Analysis of Remaining GOP Primaries....Will We Have A Candidate??? Maybe OR Maybe NOT!

I have no idea why one state is more of a must win state than another.  How many times have we heard this?   Way too many, but, I guess it keeps the debate going on and ratings up for the media.

Super Tuesday will tell us something, but, it won't be do or die day for any of the contenders.  Rather than Super Tuesday, I think we should be calling March SUPER March.  Why??? All total March has 850+ delegates up for grabs. Most likely the 850 delegates will be split between Mitt, Newt, and Rick..  

Then we get into April with another 350 + delegates.  By the end of April, we should have a decent idea about who will be the GOP candidate?  Maybe???  If March and April are split proportionally between 2 or 3 candidates, then we could be entering May with none of the candidates having more than 500 to 800 delegates.  So we get into May and the big state with the most delegates will be TX on May 29 with 155.  May total delegates is 431.   

So April and May there will be another 760 delegates up for grabs...stay with me..:) 

Delegates from March - June are:

March              860

April                 329

May                 431   (Because TX primary has now be scheduled for May 29)

June                339

Grand Total:    1,959 Delegates.  

This won't happen, but, if Santorum and Mitt spit the 1,959 evenly, neither would have enough delegates to reach 1144.   Plus, don't you think Newt or Paul might win a few states along the way? 

So, to keep writing one state or the other is a do or die state for any of the candidates, at this point in time, at best, is just a wild guess.  

If the delegate count should stay within 2-4% among the top two contenders, the most critical state could turn out to be UTAH with 40 delegates.  Anyone want to guess who wins UTAH?   

For any of the contenders to reach 1144 by the end of April, one of them  would have to win between 78%  to 90% of all the delegates in those two months.   I don't see that happening.

Summary:  Any contender who might get lucky and win every state in March still doesn't have 1144, not even Romney.   My take on the GOP winner, if we have one, it will happen between May 29 and the end of June....Otherwise, one of the contenders will have to get extremely lucky prior to May 29. (Stay with me)

Sidebar:....  I like many am  praying for a brokered convention which, most likely won't happen.  Which leaves the convention open for a lot of 'horse trading' of delegates.  Why??? Because there will be 477 unpledged delegates at the convention.  Those unpleadged delegates, are not bound to any candidate which means they are free to cast their vote for any of the contenders or someone that's not a contender. Which will it be, no one knows.

Again, bottom  line, we most likely will not know who the GOP Candidate will be until the GOP Convention.   But, in politics, we never know when one of the candidates may catch on fire and other candidate(s) 'fire' may 'flame' out???

THE OTHER THING THAT COULD THROW THIS POSTS LOGIC OUT THE DOOR,  WOULD BE IF 2 OF THE CONTENDERS SUSPENDED THEIR CAMPAIGNS AND ENDORSED ONE OF THE REMAINING TWO.   BUT, EVEN IF THAT HAPPENS, I AM CERTAIN THE 2012 GOP PRIMARIES WILL MOST LIKELY GO UNTIL MAY 1 OR MAY 29.   

Sorry this is so long, but, I am  big on facts and not rhetoric.  Thanks for reading.

Posted via email from Kleerstreem's Posterous