What Changed in this Election from 2008??? Not Much!!!

So if ads and candidate campaigning did not move the dial, what did? Events.

The debates, the conventions, the storm coverage, Benghazi, the state of the economy, jobs data and all other events that affected all fifty states mattered.  But the paid media, the in-person campaigning in swing states, and the massive ground game deployed by both sides accomplished nothing.  Obama lost all the votes he was going to lose anyway in the swing states and Romney gained of the votes he was going to gain anyway in the swing states.  Otherwise, how can one account for the virtually identical change from '08 to '12 in all the states Obama carried, whether swing states or not?

Two implications flow from these data:

1.  Television is losing its impact.  Particularly in the presidential race, it is astonishing that the almost one billion dollars spent advertising in eight states did very little to move the vote share.  Voters are not watching television as much these days and those that are still turning it on are fast forwarding through the ads. And negative campaign ads -- in fact, all ads, -- are losing their impact.

2.  Demographic voting is the new norm in America.  You vote based on who you are, not where you live or how well each campaign has articulated its case. 93% of blacks, 70% of Latinos, 60% of those under 30, and 62% of single people, voted for Obama.  And white married couples over 30 years of age voted for Romney.  Not much else matters.  A president who was elected and re-elected through identity politics has brought about a state of affairs where demographic voting determines the outcome.  Our votes are predictable based on our race, ethnicity, age, and marital status well before anybody does any campaigning.

Even the vaunted ground games of the two parties didn't do much.  Voter turnout was eleven million lower than in 2008 -- reversing the upward trends of the past four elections -- and Obama's vote share change from '08 to '12 was about the same in states where vigorous get out the vote campaigns raged and in those where they did not.

It is bad enough that America is now divided into red and blue states.  It is divided into red and blue people as well based, not on their opinions, but on their demographics.  ....from Dick Morris 

Posted via email from Global Politics