Friday, December 2, 2011

The Myths of Balance Budgets

it's worthwhile to look at the real deficits that each recent president has had. So let's do that.

The chart below indicates the president responsible for the budget a given year, the fiscal year in question, the size of the national debt at the beginning of that fiscal year, the size of the national debt at the end of that fiscal year, the real deficit (the amount the national debt increased during the year), and the claimed deficit. The claimed deficits come from historical table 1.1 of the 2009 Federal Budget  (page 25 of the PDF), except for the claimed deficit of 2008 which was obtained from table 1 of the September 2008 Monthly Treasury Statement . The figures for the national debt come from the U.S. Treasury Bureau of the Public Debt . The numbers in parenthesis in the "claimed deficit" column indicate claimed surpluses.

President Budget YearStarting National Debt Ending National DebtReal Deficit Claimed Deficit
CARTERFY1978 $698.840 B$771.544 B$72.704 B $59.185 B
FY1979$771.544 B$826.519 B$54.975 B $40.726 B
FY1980$826.519 B$907.701 B $81.182 B$73.830 B
FY1981$907.701 B $997.855 B$90.154 B$78.968 B
 $299.015 B$252.709 B
REAGANFY1982$997.855 B$1,142.034 B $144.179 B$127.977 B
FY1983$1,142.034 B $1,377.210 B$235.176 B$207.802 B
FY1984 $1,377.210 B$1,572.266 B$195.056 B $185.367 B
FY1985$1,572.266 B$1,823.103 B $250.837 B$212.308 B
FY1986$1,823.103 B $2,125.303 B$302.200 B$221.227 B
FY1987 $2,125.303 B$2,350.277 B$224.974 B$149.730 B
FY1988$2,350.277 B$2,602.338 B$252.061 B $155.178 B
FY1989$2,602.338 B$2,857.431 B $255.093 B$152.639 B
 $1,859.576 B $1,412.228 B
BUSH SR.FY1990 $2,857.431 B$3,233.313 B$375.882 B $221.036 B
FY1991$3,233.313 B$3,665.303 B $431.990 B$269.238 B
FY1992$3,665.303 B $4,064.621 B$399.317 B$290.321 B
FY1993 $4,064.621 B$4,411.489 B$346.868 B$255.051 B
 $1,554.057 B$1,035.646 B
CLINTONFY1994$4,411.489 B$4,692.750 B $281.261 B$203.186 B
FY1995$4,692.750 B $4,973.983 B$281.233 B$163.952 B
FY1996 $4,973.983 B$5,224.811 B$250.828 B $107.431 B
FY1997$5,224.811 B$5,413.146 B $188.335 B$21.884 B
FY1998$5,413.146 B $5,526.193 B$113.047 B($69.270 B)
FY1999 $5,526.193 B$5,656.271 B$130.078 B($125.610 B)
FY2000$5,656.271 B$5,674.178 B$17.907 B ($236.241 B)
FY2001$5,674.178 B$5,807.463 B $133.285 B($128.236 B)
 $1,395.974 B ($62.904 B)
BUSHFY2002 $5,807.463 B$6,228.236 B$420.773 B$157.758 B
FY2003$6,228.236 B$6,783.231 B$554.995 B $377.585 B
FY2004$6,783.231 B$7,379.053 B $595.822 B$412.727 B
FY2005$7,379.053 B $7,932.710 B$553.657 B$318.346 B
FY2006 $7,932.710 B$8,506.974 B$574.264 B$248.181 B
FY2007$8,506.974 B$9,007.653 B$500.679 B $162.002 B
FY2008$9,007.653 B$10,024.725 B $1,017.072 B$454.806 B
 $4,217.262 B $2,131.405 B
PresidentBudget Year Starting National DebtEnding National Debt Real DeficitClaimed Deficit

Comparing Claimed and Real Deficits

As can be seen very clearly in the table, every year the "official" claimed deficit is smaller than the amount by which the national debt went up. This is true under both Republican and Democrat presidents. Sometimes the differences between the two are smaller and sometimes they are larger, but the real deficit (calculated by the amount the national debt increased) is always larger than the deficit the government claimed.

Consider the following:

  • The sum of all Carter's claimed deficits was $252.709 billion but the national debt went up by $299.015 billion.
  • The sum of all Reagan's claimed deficits was $1.412228 trillion but the national debt went up by $1.859576 trillion.
  • The sum of Bush Sr.'s claimed deficits was $1.035646 trillion but the national debt went up by $1.554057 trillion.
  • The sum of Clinton's claimed deficits and surpluses actually resulted in a net surplus of $62.904 billion but the national debt went up by $1.395974 trillion--only 30% less than the increase during the Reagan administration.
  • The sum of George W. Bush's claimed deficits (through fiscal year 2008) was $2.131405 trillion but the national debt went up $4.217262 trillion
  • The sum of all the reported deficits of these five presidents is $4.769084 trillion but the national debt has gone up $9.325885 trillion!
Clinton and George W. Bush's figures warrant special attention.

To those who cling to the belief that Clinton had a surplus, please review the official surpluses for the Clinton years (FY1994-FY2001). The sum of the claimed surpluses in the last four years actually exceeds the sum of the claimed deficits in the first four years. The result is that if we believe the official CBO deficit/surplus reports, the overall balance of Clinton's presidency was a net surplus of $62.904 billion. Yet during Clinton's presidency the national debt actually increased by 1 trillion 395 billion 974 million dollars. Those that defend the validity of the government surplus/deficit figures need to explain how an alleged 8-year net surplus of $62.904 billion during the Clinton administration caused the government to increase its debt by $1.395974 trillion. If Clinton's administration took in $62.904 billion more than it spent (the definition of a surplus), then why did it have to borrow another $1.39574 trillion?

George W. Bush's presidency also highlights the same problem. If we add up the official deficits of Bush's seven fiscal years so far, the total is $2.131405 trillion. But detractors correctly point out that Bush has increased the national debt by $4.217262 trillion--almost twice the stated deficits.

Posted via email from Global Politics

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