Sunday, July 31, 2011

Unbelievable solutions to common tech problems

---by Kim Komando

7/30/2011

How could you use rice or your freezer to rescue your digital life? Believe it or not, these are little-known staples in your friendly technical support person's bag of tricks. Now they can be yours.

Dropping a cell phone in the toilet is more common than you'd think. Fortunately, you can rescue a wet cell phone. But you have to act quickly. Corrosion moves fast. So first thing (after fishing the phone out of the toilet, which I won't get into), remove the battery, if possible. Pat it dry and set it aside.

Pat the cell phone dry, too. Also, remove the sim card, if your phone has one. Then, immerse the wet cell phone in a container of uncooked rice overnight. Rotate the phone every hour until bedtime. You want to be sure that any water in the phone has an escape route.

You could also put the wet cell phone in an airtight bag with silica packs. Those are the things that protect goods from moisture. Like rice, silica absorbs moisture. You probably could find silica packs at camera stores.

Fast action is imperative when you’re dealing with a wet cell phone. Get the phone out of the toilet quickly. This is no time to be squeamish. The longer it is there, the more likely water will penetrate it.

Better yet, don't take your cell phone to the bathroom.

Sometimes, when you start your computer, you might get an unpleasant sound akin to a cat squealing. Clicking and grinding are also pretty bad sounds.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news. By all likelihood, your hard drive is staggering toward the grave and taking your data with it. It didn't spin up fast enough to start. And perhaps there is something wrong with the drive's components.

Often, you can rescue the situation temporarily by rebooting the computer. But if the hard drive is failing, don't dillydally. If you don't have a backup regimen, develop one, fast. Send your data to another computer if you're on a network. Save it on a bunch of DVDs. Use an online backup service.

Now, the following may sound like a very strange recommendation and works for all but solid state drives.

If a hard drive is dead, take it out of the computer, seal it in a plastic bag and put it in a freezer overnight. Sometimes the cold causes the metal to shrink enough to allow the drive's head to work. When you reinstall the hard drive, move your data to a new hard drive quickly. Once it warms up, any benefit from the cold will be gone.

I once told a guy to do this who called my national radio show with a bum hard drive. Afterwards, he didn't say a word until I told him that I was not joking. A few days later, he sent me a thank you note. He was able to get the data off the drive before it croaked for good.

Friday, July 29, 2011

The 14th Amendment

Constitution_1


Liberals like to think of the Constitution as an evolving, elastic or flexible document, but in this case they are simply making it up. The president has no authority unilaterally to saddle the country with more debt. Article I Section 8 of the Constitution grants Congress the power "to borrow money on the credit of the United States." This is a specific, enumerated power given to Congress alone. The debt provision of the 14th Amendment was originally intended simply to ensure Federal debts accrued during the Civil War and deny any claims for compensation on debt entered into by the Confederate States. It was not a sweeping and unprecedented grant of executive power that has lain dormant for a century and a half. And the part of the Section 4 that liberals like to edit out is the passage that states debt must be "authorized by law," not by executive diktat. And if this does not convince them, Section 5 states clearly that "the Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article." In fact the debt provision of the 14th Amendment means the exact opposite of what leftists are trying to torture out of the text.

Posted via email from Global Politics

5 common PC problems

----by Kim Komando

7/29/2011

The toaster is a typical electrical gadget. It browns your bread. Yes, it can be made difficult with too many choices. But, basically, anyone can operate it.

It will be a great day when computers achieve toaster-like simplicity. They are not there yet. And they show no signs of getting there anytime soon.

I have been answering computer questions for 15 years. I still get questions I have never seen before. It's really amazing.

Nonetheless, certain questions pop up with regularity. No matter how many times I address them, they still come in. Some things cannot be said too often, I guess.

Certain problems are relatively common. Some result in replacement of the computer, often unnecessarily. Even a rank amateur can fix many problems. Taking it to the computer store will be expensive; you'll be lucky to escape for less than $250. You should try to fix it yourself.

1. The spyware plague
A message pops up repeatedly, telling you to buy a security program. It happens so often that you can't get any work done.

This is adware, or spyware. It's probably the most common problem of all. Somewhere along the line, you were offered a free scan. The program "found" terrible things on your computer. It wants you to buy the product to clean your hard drive.

Your gut tells you that this is a ripoff. Your gut is correct. This is fraudware. Use this site to stay current on fake antivirus programs.

Let's say you bought the program and ran it. If you ran the scan again, it would "find" the same problems. They were never there to begin with.

Running antivirus software probably won't help at this point. To stop the pop-ups, you must run an anti-spyware program. There are a number of good ones. I'd use Ad-Aware and Windows Defender.

You can download more anti-spyware for free from my Security Center. Download antivirus and a firewall while you're there. They will help keep viruses and other malicious programs off your computer.

2. The dead computer
You turn on your computer first thing in the morning. Nothing happens. No lights come on, no fans whir. Nothing. Your computer is dead.

What's the usual response? Well, it's old. It's time to get a new one. Nothing wrong with that, so long as you have plenty of money. The rest of us will want to fix it.

Before you start, make sure the computer is plugged in. Yes, yes, you feel certain that it is. Nonetheless, double-check!

Assuming you're right, the problem is probably a burned out power supply. You can replace it, if it's a desktop. If your computer's a laptop, and out of warranty, replace it. Only a professional should fix a laptop. Professionals are expensive.

To repair a desktop, unplug all the external cables. Open the side of the box by removing screws in the back. The power supply is in the upper rear. A bundle of wires leaves it, connecting to everything in the box. Get out your camera phone and take many pictures. Refer to them if confusion strikes.

On the side of the power supply, you'll see the power rating. It's probably 300 to 400 watts. Go to the electronics store and find a near match. Expect to spend $30 to $60.

Back home, ground yourself on the computer's frame. (Static electricity will kill electronics.) Remove the screws attaching the power supply to the computer. Move the burned out unit out of the way. Do not detach the cables. Install the new power supply. Then, unhook the old cables and replace them, one by one.

When you finish, reinstall the side of the box. Hook up the external cables, and fire up the computer. Congratulate yourself on saving several hundred dollars!

3. The monitor is dark
This is another reason many computers are replaced. Buying a new monitor is much less expensive. And a new video card is less expensive still.

There are two cables attached to the monitor--power and video. Make sure both are tight. Be sure the power cable is plugged into the electrical outlet.

Is the power light on the monitor lit? If so, we'll have to look further. If not, you probably need a new monitor. Check out my Buying Guide for monitors.  

Either way, I'd still want to test that. Try to find a working monitor. Perhaps you have one on another computer. Or, maybe a friend can lend you one. Hook up the replacement monitor. If it works, the old one is bad. If it doesn't, something else is happening.

Many computers have video cards. These are small circuit boards, stuck into the mother board. The video cable from the monitor attaches to this card. Video cards can burn out. I'd buy another, and put it in the computer. If it doesn't solve the problem, you can always return it (make sure the retailer will allow returns before buying it, though).

The video system is built into the motherboard on many computers. If it goes bad, the motherboard can theoretically be replaced. That's beyond the abilities of most people. Buy a new computer.

4. The blue screen of death
So, your computer is working fine. You're playing a game, racking up points. Suddenly, you get a blue screen. It says there's been an error, and the computer must restart. It includes nonsensical information.

Don't ignore that information. Instead, make a note of it. If you can, get on the Internet and Microsoft's site.

Enter that error message. You may well find it in Microsoft's knowledge base. If so, it can give you a good idea of what is wrong.

If you can't find the message, try on the Internet. Quite possibly, someone else has had the same problem. There may be a solution available there.

Many blue screens are caused by bad memory modules. First, uninstall and then reinstall the memory modules. If it still doesn't work, just replace the bad part. There are several memory companies online. Try Crucial, Kingston Technology and PNY Technologies. All have memory configurators. They'll tell you exactly what you need.

Memory is relatively inexpensive. And it's not too difficult to replace. You'll find tutorials at all the memory stores online. Just remember to ground yourself when you open your computer. You don't want to ruin your parts with static electricity.

5. Intruders are using your wireless network
Wireless is a great way to network. You can move around your house with your notebook. There's nothing better than working on your patio on a nice day.

Unfortunately, your neighbors will like your wireless system, too. It gives them the opportunity to access the Internet free. Maybe they'll download some kiddie porn and store it on your computer. You'll enjoy explaining that to the police!

You want to block your neighbors, and everyone else, from your system. You do that with encryption. That is set up within your router.

First, enter the IP (Internet Protocol) number in your browser. It will be something like 192.168.0.1. Check your router manual to be sure.

Once you sign in, you'll be able to select your encryption. You want WPA2, also known as WPA-PSK. You may also see WEP or WPA. WEP is Wired Equivalent Privacy, an old, unacceptable standard. WPA is a predecessor to WPA2. It has been broken, although it is much safer than WEP. Get more details about setting up wireless encryption.

If WPA-PSK or WPA2 is not available, check with the manufacturer. You may be able to upgrade the router's firmware. If not, buy a new router. They're not that expensive. Good encryption can save you money in the long run.

It's handy to be able to fix your own computer. Learn about some other problems that might pop up and how to resolve them.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

The 9 Skills Every Woman Should Master

by Christine Kane business woman relaxing

There's a popular Esquire Magazine article called "75 Skills Every Man Should Master." There's stuff about baseball, neckties, and other things that most of the extraordinary men in my life could care the least about.

It got me thinking about the happiest, coolest, most successful women I know. And how they would take the question of mastery about 40,000 leagues deeper than neckties and baseball.

In fact, it dawned on me that the burning desire beneath my outward goals is almost always the mastery of one of the following skills. The goals themselves - be they money, fitness, etc - are really the means to becoming a student of something much much cooler.

So, here are 9 Skills Every Woman Should Master...

1 - Reveling in your own preferences.

Taking the time to notice your delight. Trying new things, and honoring yourself enough to make time for them. (No matter how stupid they seem.) This is the key to the authenticity we women crave.

Unapologetically reveling in your own preferences gives you permission to be real - and serves others by letting them see your joy and choose (or not) to bask in it with you!

2 - Listening without judgment.

I'm convinced that suffering comes from judgment. Not just self-judgment. But ALL judgment.

That being said, many people think that "listening" means "waiting my turn to talk." Which means that much of our time is not spent actually listening. It is spent judging what's being said.

Learning how to truly listen without judgment - whether to another person or to yourself - awakens the intuition. It heals and empowers the speaker. It enriches the present moment.

3 - Discerning "Nurture" from "Distract."

Many of us lead exciting, challenging and sometimes stressful lives. We are serving children, clients, parents, co-workers. Our self-care matters if we are to be of true service in the world.

There's a huge difference, however, between nurturing ourselves with what we truly want and need - and distracting ourselves in order to stuff the stress or fill the time. Learning that difference, and honoring our true needs (ie, getting a massage vs. eating a sleeve of Oreos in one sitting) is crucial.

4 - Letting go of the need to "fix."

Most of us know that when we try to fix another person, we rob them of empowerment. (And often, our "fixes" are more for US than for them.) Allowing others to find their own wisdom, to make mistakes and to be exactly where they are on their path teaches us to accept the present moment as well as the mystery.

It also teaches us that we are not the ultimate deciders of what is right and wrong!

5 - Becoming an Imperfectionist.

Having a purpose, taking action, trying new things - all of these contribute to our deep satisfaction and joy. When we expect ourselves to be perfect before trying new things, we cut off many avenues to happiness.

When you become an Imperfectionist, you finally recognize your ego voice exactly for what it is: Your own personal Success Prevention Expert.

6 - Getting Out of the Comfort Zone.

Our growth and success are often proportional to how often we're willing to let ourselves be uncomfortable. We kid ourselves (and our souls) when we convince ourselves to play it safe.

Getting out of the comfort zone doesn't mean extreme sports or stepping onto a stage. Sometimes it can be as seemingly small as saying no - or trying a yoga class.

7 - Saying No with Clarity.

Learning to say no is really about learning to say yes.

When we say no to something we don't want to do, be, or have - we are actually saying Yes to our deeper desires. Many women don't believe they can have what they truly want, so they learn to settle, and their lives are filled with "maybe's."

Saying no - with clarity and without explaining - is really about honoring other people as well as ourselves.

8 - Allowing disappointment.

When we say no, or when we follow our dreams or true callings - people might be "disappointed" in our choices.

Life is not a campaign. We don't have to get votes. People can love us and still feel disappointed that we didn't do it their way. Too many women go on campaign trails to get others to agree with them before they take proactive steps. This only serves to rob them of the creative energy they need.

Allowing people their disappointment sets us free.

9 - Making support mandatory.

I can't remember NOT having a coach. It's now a requirement in my life in the same way it's a requirement for a world-class athlete.

I feel the same about hiring people and about asking for help. Too many women hope for the best and go it alone. (Been there, done that!)

Well, remember this little ditty from Einstein: The problems we face cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.

Translation? Get support, training and encouragement. Make it a mandate. You will soon discover a new level of lightness and velocity!

...................................................................

Christine Kane is the Mentor to Women Who are Changing the World. She helps women uplevel their lives, their businesses and their success. Her weekly LiveCreative eZine goes out to over 20,000 subscribers. If you are ready to take your life and your world to the next level, you can sign up for a F.R.E.E. subscription at http://christinekane.com.

Posted via email from Music Business Information

DC Baseline Budget Definition

Congressional Budget OfficeSkip Navigation
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PDF
CBO
TESTIMONY
 
Statement of
Paul N. Van de Water
Assistant Director for Budget Analysis
Congressional Budget Office
 
on
Budget Projections and Baselines
 
before the
Task Force on Budget Process
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
 
April 1, 1998
 
NOTICE
This statement is not available for public release until it is delivered at 10:00 a.m. (EST), Wednesday, April 1, 1998.
 

Mr. Chairman and Members of the task force, I appreciate the opportunity to be here this morning to discuss budget projections and budget baselines. In recent years, the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) baseline budget projections have been the most widely used yardstick for measuring budgetary proposals. When preparing a cost estimate of a bill, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation use baseline budget projections for calculating the cost or savings that would result from legislative proposals to change laws affecting entitlements and revenues. The Budget Committees generally use CBO's baseline budget projections as a starting point for formulating their recommendations for the annual Congressional budget resolution.
 

THE BASELINE CONCEPT

Twice a year--generally in January and August--CBO prepares baseline projections of federal revenues, outlays, and the surplus or deficit. Those projections are designed to show what would happen if current budgetary policies were continued as is--that is, they serve as a benchmark for assessing possible changes in policy. They are not forecasts of actual budget outcomes, since the Congress will undoubtedly enact legislation that will change revenues and outlays. Similarly, they are not intended to represent the appropriate or desirable levels of federal taxes and spending.

For tax revenues and entitlement programs, such as Social Security and unemployment insurance, CBO's baseline budget projections follow the rules set forth in section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985. Current policies for those programs are defined by the laws that determine liability for taxes or eligibility for benefits. The baseline generally assumes a continuation of those laws as now on the statute books. It also assumes continuation of certain programs of limited duration that are routinely reauthorized.

For defense and nondefense discretionary programs, CBO's baseline budget projections assume that the Congress adheres to the statutory caps on budget authority and outlays through 2002. Once the caps expire, however, no overarching dollar total established in legislation will control discretionary appropriations. The concept of current policy for discretionary spending is therefore ambiguous after 2002. The benchmark established in the Deficit Control Act is the maintenance of real funding--that is, resource levels adjusted for inflation. The CBO baseline assumes that discretionary spending grows at the rate of inflation once the caps expire in 2002. An alternative is to fix the benchmark at a constant nominal (or dollar) level, and CBO publishes budget projections following that approach as well (see Table 1).
 


TABLE 1.
BASELINE BUDGET PROJECTIONS (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)




1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Baseline Projections with Inflation in Discretionary Programs After 2002
 
Revenues 1,680 1,738 1,784 1,847 1,930 2,008 2,105 2,208 2,314 2,426 2,540
 
Outlays

Discretionary 558 561 565 564 560 576 592 609 626 643 661

Mandatory


Net interest 245 247 243 237 230 226 221 215 209 202 194


Other 951 1,004 1,060 1,123 1,176 1,250 1,322 1,417 1,477 1,570 1,672

Offsetting receipts -82 -82 -85 -91 -103 -97 -101 -107 -113 -119 -126
 



Total 1,672 1,730 1,782 1,833 1,863 1,954 2,035 2,134 2,199 2,297 2,402
 
Surplus 8 9 1 13 67 53 70 75 115 130 138
 
Baseline Projections Without Inflation in Discretionary Programs After 2002
 
Revenues 1,680 1,738 1,784 1,847 1,930 2,008 2,105 2,208 2,314 2,426 2,540
 
Outlays

Discretionary 558 561 565 564 560 560 560 560 560 560 560

Mandatory


Net interest 245 247 243 237 230 225 219 211 201 190 177


Other 951 1,004 1,060 1,123 1,176 1,250 1,322 1,417 1,477 1,570 1,672

Offsetting receipts -82 -82 -85 -91 -103 -97 -101 -107 -113 -119 -126
 



Total 1,672 1,730 1,782 1,833 1,863 1,938 2,001 2,081 2,126 2,202 2,284
 
Surplus 8 9 1 13 67 69 104 127 188 224 256

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: Caps on discretionary spending are set by law through 2002. The first scenario assumes that discretionary spending complies with the caps through 2002 and grows at the rate of inflation thereafter. The second assumes that discretionary spending complies with the caps through 2002 and is frozen thereafter.

The budget includes two other categories of spending: offsetting receipts, which encompass Medicare insurance premiums and similar fees and collections, and net interest, which basically reflects the government's interest payments on the national debt. CBO's baseline for offsetting receipts represents the agency's best estimate of the amount that the government will collect under current laws and policies. Net interest, rather than being directly controlled by policymakers, is driven by market interest rates and the outstanding stock of federal debt held by the public. As a result, CBO estimates such spending based on its projections of those two determinants.

Baseline budget projections depend critically on the economic and other estimating assumptions on which they are based. CBO typically illustrates the sensitivity of the budget to the economy in two different ways. One way is through rules of thumb that involve changes in individual economic variables taken in isolation. Another approach is to prepare complete alternative economic forecasts, such as one marked by a recession. In addition, budget projections depend on a host of factors that are not included in the economic forecast. For example, budget estimators must take account of the expected effect on future spending of such factors as birth rates, mortality, disability, and changes in the circumstances of individuals and families. They must also make assumptions about how individual taxpayers, beneficiaries, state and local governments, and providers of health care and other services respond to federal legislation.
 

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BASELINE

The genesis of baseline budget projections can be found in the Congressional Budget Act of 1974. That act required the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to prepare projections of federal spending for the upcoming fiscal year based on a continuation of the existing level of governmental services. It also required the newly established Congressional Budget Office to prepare five-year projections of budget authority, outlays, revenues, and the surplus or deficit. OMB published its initial current-services budget projections in November 1974, and CBO's five-year projections first appeared in January 1976. Today's baseline budget projections are very much like those prepared more than two decades ago, although they now span 10 years instead of five.

The Budget Act was silent on whether to adjust estimates of discretionary appropriations for anticipated changes in inflation. Until 1980, OMB's projections excluded inflation adjustments for discretionary programs. CBO's projections, however, assumed that appropriations would keep pace with inflation, although CBO has also published projections without these so-called discretionary inflation adjustments.

CBO's budget projections took on added importance in 1980 and 1981, when they served as the baseline for computing spending reductions to be achieved in the budget reconciliation process. The reconciliation instructions contained in the fiscal year 1982 budget resolution (the so-called Gramm-Latta budget) required House and Senate committees to reduce outlays by a total of $36 billion below baseline levels, but each committee could determine how those savings were to be achieved. The CBO baseline has been used in every year since 1981 for developing budget resolutions and measuring compliance with reconciliation instructions.

The Deficit Control Act of 1985 provided the first legal definition of baseline. For the most part, the act defined the baseline in conformity with previous usage. If appropriations had not been enacted for the upcoming fiscal year, the baseline was to assume the previous year's level without any adjustment for inflation. In 1987, however, the Congress amended the definition of the baseline so that discretionary appropriations would be adjusted to keep pace with inflation. Other technical changes to the definition of the baseline were enacted in 1990, 1993, and 1997.
 

CURRENT ISSUES

Baseline budget projections increasingly became the subject of political debate and controversy during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Some critics contended that baseline projections create a bias in favor of spending by assuming that federal spending keeps pace with inflation, increases in caseloads, and other factors driving the growth of entitlement programs. Those critics also observed that entitlement spending continued to rise, even as eligibility rules were tightened and payment rates reduced. Changes that merely slowed the growth of federal spending programs, they argued, should not be described as cuts in spending.

Such criticisms seem to be directed more against the concept of entitlements, however, than against the idea of the baseline. After all, the baseline provides useful information about entitlement programs--a projection of what spending would be in the absence of Congressional action. It would be difficult to formulate legislation to control entitlement spending without an estimate of its likely growth under current law.

To aid in understanding the dynamics of the budget, CBO supplements its baseline projections with an analysis of the major causes of growth in entitlements and other mandatory spending (see Table 2). Mounting caseloads account for about one-fifth of the projected growth in entitlement programs over the next 10 years, and automatic increases in benefits account for more than one-third. More than one-quarter of the growth stems from increases in Medicare and Medicaid that cannot be attributed to rising caseloads or automatic adjustments in reimbursement rates.
 


TABLE 2.
SOURCES OF GROWTH IN MANDATORY SPENDING (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)




1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Estimated Spending for Base Year 1998 951 951 951 951 951 951 951 951 951 951
 
Sources of Growth

Increases in caseloads 12 24 38 52 66 81 99 118 138 161

Automatic increases in benefits


Cost-of-living adjustments 9 22 37 52 68 84 101 118 136 154


Othera 4 9 16 23 35 47 60 73 88 103

Other increases in benefits


Increases in Medicare and Medicaidb 16 28 45 64 82 104 127 151 176 202


Growth in Social Securityc 5 8 11 16 20 26 33 41 50 60


Irregular number of benefit paymentsd 0 0 5 -5 0 0 15 -9 -6 0


Change in outlays for deposit insurance 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Other sources of growth 6 15 17 19 23 25 27 29 33 38
 



Total 53 109 172 224 298 371 465 526 619 721
 
Projected Spending 1,004 1,060 1,123 1,176 1,250 1,322 1,417 1,477 1,570 1,672

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
a. Automatic increases in Food Stamp and child nutrition benefits, certain Medicare reimbursement rates, and the earned income tax credit under formulas specified by law.
b. All growth not attributed to caseloads and automatic increases in reimbursement rates.
c. All growth not attributed to caseloads and cost-of-living adjustments.
d. Represents baseline differences attributable to variations in the number of benefit checks that will be issued in a fiscal year. Normally, benefit payments are made once a month. However, Medicare will pay 13 months of benefits in 2001 and 2005 and 11 in 2002 and 2006. Supplemental Security Income and veterans' benefits will be paid 13 times in 2005, 12 times in 2006, and 11 times in 2007.

From the beginning, the major issue surrounding the baseline has been whether to include inflation adjustments for discretionary programs. The existence of statutory caps on discretionary spending since 1991 has made this issue less acute, although the problem persists for years after the caps expire. Because this question has at least two possible answers, CBO prepares baseline projections using both approaches. Members of Congress and other users of budget data can select the alternative they prefer.

For the same reason, CBO includes additional information with the cost estimates that it prepares for bills. First, as required by rule XI of the House, CBO's cost estimates include, when practicable, a comparison of estimated funding levels for the relevant program (or programs) with the level of spending under current law. For mandatory programs, such as Medicare, that information allows the reader to identify changes in the rate of growth of a program as well as changes from the baseline (see Table 3). Second, in cases in which a bill does not specify the dollar amount of an authorization, CBO projects the level of spending both with and without adjustments for inflation (see Table 4). CBO's baseline projections of discretionary spending are not used in cost estimates of legislation. New authorizations of discretionary spending are compared with existing appropriations and authorizations (or zero if the program is not authorized in a particular year).
 


TABLE 3.
ESTIMATED BUDGETARY EFFECTS OF THE BALANCED BUDGET ACT ON MEDICARE (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Spending Under Current Law
 
Benefit Paymentsa 227.0 248.2 273.0 285.6 313.7
Premiums -21.4 -22.4 -23.4 -24.5 -25.6
 


Total 205.5 225.7 249.5 261.1 288.1
 
Changes in Spending
 
Medicare Provisions (Subtitles A-G)

Benefit paymentsa -6.9 -15.5 -27.6 -17.1 -35.9

Premiums 0.2 -0.9 -2.4 -4.1 -6.2
 


Total -6.7 -16.4 -30.0 -21.2 -42.1
 
Medicaid and PACE Provisions (Subtitles H-I)

Benefit payments and low-income premium assistance 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
 
Spending Under the Balanced Budget Act
 
Benefit Payments and Low-Income Premium Assistancea 220.7 233.4 246.3 269.5 278.9
Premiums -21.2 -23.4 -25.8 -28.6 -31.8
 


Total 199.5 210.0 220.4 241.0 247.1

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office, Budgetary Implications of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, CBO Memorandum (December 1997).
NOTE: PACE = Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly.
a. Includes mandatory administrative costs.

 

TABLE 4.
ILLUSTRATIVE COST ESTIMATE (By fiscal year, in millions of dollars)


1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Spending Under Current Law

Estimated Budget Authoritya 167 0 0 0 0 0

Estimated Outlays 231 240 55 8 0 0
 
Without Adjustment for Inflation
 
Proposed Changes

Estimated Authorization Level 0 415 415 415 165 165

Estimated Outlays 0 176 354 407 281 193
 
Spending Under S. 417

Estimated Authorization Levela 167 415 415 415 165 165

Estimated Outlays 231 417 409 415 281 193
 
With Adjustment for Inflation
 
Proposed Changes

Estimated Authorization Level 0 425 436 447 184 189

Estimated Outlays 0 180 367 431 302 214
 
Spending Under S. 417

Estimated Authorization Levela 167 425 436 447 184 189

Estimated Outlays 231 421 422 439 302 214

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for S. 417 as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on May 21, 1997.
a. The 1997 level is the net amount appropriated for that year.

Other criticisms of the baseline are more political than technical in nat

Posted via email from Global Politics

DC Baseline Budget Definition

Congressional Budget OfficeSkip Navigation
Home Red Bullet Publications Red Bullet Cost Estimates Red Bullet About CBO Red Bullet Press Red Bullet Careers Red Bullet Contact Us Red Bullet Director's Blog Red Bullet   RSS

PDF
CBO
TESTIMONY
 
Statement of
Paul N. Van de Water
Assistant Director for Budget Analysis
Congressional Budget Office
 
on
Budget Projections and Baselines
 
before the
Task Force on Budget Process
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
 
April 1, 1998
 
NOTICE
This statement is not available for public release until it is delivered at 10:00 a.m. (EST), Wednesday, April 1, 1998.
 

Mr. Chairman and Members of the task force, I appreciate the opportunity to be here this morning to discuss budget projections and budget baselines. In recent years, the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) baseline budget projections have been the most widely used yardstick for measuring budgetary proposals. When preparing a cost estimate of a bill, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation use baseline budget projections for calculating the cost or savings that would result from legislative proposals to change laws affecting entitlements and revenues. The Budget Committees generally use CBO's baseline budget projections as a starting point for formulating their recommendations for the annual Congressional budget resolution.
 

THE BASELINE CONCEPT

Twice a year--generally in January and August--CBO prepares baseline projections of federal revenues, outlays, and the surplus or deficit. Those projections are designed to show what would happen if current budgetary policies were continued as is--that is, they serve as a benchmark for assessing possible changes in policy. They are not forecasts of actual budget outcomes, since the Congress will undoubtedly enact legislation that will change revenues and outlays. Similarly, they are not intended to represent the appropriate or desirable levels of federal taxes and spending.

For tax revenues and entitlement programs, such as Social Security and unemployment insurance, CBO's baseline budget projections follow the rules set forth in section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985. Current policies for those programs are defined by the laws that determine liability for taxes or eligibility for benefits. The baseline generally assumes a continuation of those laws as now on the statute books. It also assumes continuation of certain programs of limited duration that are routinely reauthorized.

For defense and nondefense discretionary programs, CBO's baseline budget projections assume that the Congress adheres to the statutory caps on budget authority and outlays through 2002. Once the caps expire, however, no overarching dollar total established in legislation will control discretionary appropriations. The concept of current policy for discretionary spending is therefore ambiguous after 2002. The benchmark established in the Deficit Control Act is the maintenance of real funding--that is, resource levels adjusted for inflation. The CBO baseline assumes that discretionary spending grows at the rate of inflation once the caps expire in 2002. An alternative is to fix the benchmark at a constant nominal (or dollar) level, and CBO publishes budget projections following that approach as well (see Table 1).
 


TABLE 1.
BASELINE BUDGET PROJECTIONS (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)




1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Baseline Projections with Inflation in Discretionary Programs After 2002
 
Revenues 1,680 1,738 1,784 1,847 1,930 2,008 2,105 2,208 2,314 2,426 2,540
 
Outlays

Discretionary 558 561 565 564 560 576 592 609 626 643 661

Mandatory


Net interest 245 247 243 237 230 226 221 215 209 202 194


Other 951 1,004 1,060 1,123 1,176 1,250 1,322 1,417 1,477 1,570 1,672

Offsetting receipts -82 -82 -85 -91 -103 -97 -101 -107 -113 -119 -126
 



Total 1,672 1,730 1,782 1,833 1,863 1,954 2,035 2,134 2,199 2,297 2,402
 
Surplus 8 9 1 13 67 53 70 75 115 130 138
 
Baseline Projections Without Inflation in Discretionary Programs After 2002
 
Revenues 1,680 1,738 1,784 1,847 1,930 2,008 2,105 2,208 2,314 2,426 2,540
 
Outlays

Discretionary 558 561 565 564 560 560 560 560 560 560 560

Mandatory


Net interest 245 247 243 237 230 225 219 211 201 190 177


Other 951 1,004 1,060 1,123 1,176 1,250 1,322 1,417 1,477 1,570 1,672

Offsetting receipts -82 -82 -85 -91 -103 -97 -101 -107 -113 -119 -126
 



Total 1,672 1,730 1,782 1,833 1,863 1,938 2,001 2,081 2,126 2,202 2,284
 
Surplus 8 9 1 13 67 69 104 127 188 224 256

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: Caps on discretionary spending are set by law through 2002. The first scenario assumes that discretionary spending complies with the caps through 2002 and grows at the rate of inflation thereafter. The second assumes that discretionary spending complies with the caps through 2002 and is frozen thereafter.

The budget includes two other categories of spending: offsetting receipts, which encompass Medicare insurance premiums and similar fees and collections, and net interest, which basically reflects the government's interest payments on the national debt. CBO's baseline for offsetting receipts represents the agency's best estimate of the amount that the government will collect under current laws and policies. Net interest, rather than being directly controlled by policymakers, is driven by market interest rates and the outstanding stock of federal debt held by the public. As a result, CBO estimates such spending based on its projections of those two determinants.

Baseline budget projections depend critically on the economic and other estimating assumptions on which they are based. CBO typically illustrates the sensitivity of the budget to the economy in two different ways. One way is through rules of thumb that involve changes in individual economic variables taken in isolation. Another approach is to prepare complete alternative economic forecasts, such as one marked by a recession. In addition, budget projections depend on a host of factors that are not included in the economic forecast. For example, budget estimators must take account of the expected effect on future spending of such factors as birth rates, mortality, disability, and changes in the circumstances of individuals and families. They must also make assumptions about how individual taxpayers, beneficiaries, state and local governments, and providers of health care and other services respond to federal legislation.
 

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BASELINE

The genesis of baseline budget projections can be found in the Congressional Budget Act of 1974. That act required the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to prepare projections of federal spending for the upcoming fiscal year based on a continuation of the existing level of governmental services. It also required the newly established Congressional Budget Office to prepare five-year projections of budget authority, outlays, revenues, and the surplus or deficit. OMB published its initial current-services budget projections in November 1974, and CBO's five-year projections first appeared in January 1976. Today's baseline budget projections are very much like those prepared more than two decades ago, although they now span 10 years instead of five.

The Budget Act was silent on whether to adjust estimates of discretionary appropriations for anticipated changes in inflation. Until 1980, OMB's projections excluded inflation adjustments for discretionary programs. CBO's projections, however, assumed that appropriations would keep pace with inflation, although CBO has also published projections without these so-called discretionary inflation adjustments.

CBO's budget projections took on added importance in 1980 and 1981, when they served as the baseline for computing spending reductions to be achieved in the budget reconciliation process. The reconciliation instructions contained in the fiscal year 1982 budget resolution (the so-called Gramm-Latta budget) required House and Senate committees to reduce outlays by a total of $36 billion below baseline levels, but each committee could determine how those savings were to be achieved. The CBO baseline has been used in every year since 1981 for developing budget resolutions and measuring compliance with reconciliation instructions.

The Deficit Control Act of 1985 provided the first legal definition of baseline. For the most part, the act defined the baseline in conformity with previous usage. If appropriations had not been enacted for the upcoming fiscal year, the baseline was to assume the previous year's level without any adjustment for inflation. In 1987, however, the Congress amended the definition of the baseline so that discretionary appropriations would be adjusted to keep pace with inflation. Other technical changes to the definition of the baseline were enacted in 1990, 1993, and 1997.
 

CURRENT ISSUES

Baseline budget projections increasingly became the subject of political debate and controversy during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Some critics contended that baseline projections create a bias in favor of spending by assuming that federal spending keeps pace with inflation, increases in caseloads, and other factors driving the growth of entitlement programs. Those critics also observed that entitlement spending continued to rise, even as eligibility rules were tightened and payment rates reduced. Changes that merely slowed the growth of federal spending programs, they argued, should not be described as cuts in spending.

Such criticisms seem to be directed more against the concept of entitlements, however, than against the idea of the baseline. After all, the baseline provides useful information about entitlement programs--a projection of what spending would be in the absence of Congressional action. It would be difficult to formulate legislation to control entitlement spending without an estimate of its likely growth under current law.

To aid in understanding the dynamics of the budget, CBO supplements its baseline projections with an analysis of the major causes of growth in entitlements and other mandatory spending (see Table 2). Mounting caseloads account for about one-fifth of the projected growth in entitlement programs over the next 10 years, and automatic increases in benefits account for more than one-third. More than one-quarter of the growth stems from increases in Medicare and Medicaid that cannot be attributed to rising caseloads or automatic adjustments in reimbursement rates.
 


TABLE 2.
SOURCES OF GROWTH IN MANDATORY SPENDING (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)




1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Estimated Spending for Base Year 1998 951 951 951 951 951 951 951 951 951 951
 
Sources of Growth

Increases in caseloads 12 24 38 52 66 81 99 118 138 161

Automatic increases in benefits


Cost-of-living adjustments 9 22 37 52 68 84 101 118 136 154


Othera 4 9 16 23 35 47 60 73 88 103

Other increases in benefits


Increases in Medicare and Medicaidb 16 28 45 64 82 104 127 151 176 202


Growth in Social Securityc 5 8 11 16 20 26 33 41 50 60


Irregular number of benefit paymentsd 0 0 5 -5 0 0 15 -9 -6 0


Change in outlays for deposit insurance 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Other sources of growth 6 15 17 19 23 25 27 29 33 38
 



Total 53 109 172 224 298 371 465 526 619 721
 
Projected Spending 1,004 1,060 1,123 1,176 1,250 1,322 1,417 1,477 1,570 1,672

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
a. Automatic increases in Food Stamp and child nutrition benefits, certain Medicare reimbursement rates, and the earned income tax credit under formulas specified by law.
b. All growth not attributed to caseloads and automatic increases in reimbursement rates.
c. All growth not attributed to caseloads and cost-of-living adjustments.
d. Represents baseline differences attributable to variations in the number of benefit checks that will be issued in a fiscal year. Normally, benefit payments are made once a month. However, Medicare will pay 13 months of benefits in 2001 and 2005 and 11 in 2002 and 2006. Supplemental Security Income and veterans' benefits will be paid 13 times in 2005, 12 times in 2006, and 11 times in 2007.

From the beginning, the major issue surrounding the baseline has been whether to include inflation adjustments for discretionary programs. The existence of statutory caps on discretionary spending since 1991 has made this issue less acute, although the problem persists for years after the caps expire. Because this question has at least two possible answers, CBO prepares baseline projections using both approaches. Members of Congress and other users of budget data can select the alternative they prefer.

For the same reason, CBO includes additional information with the cost estimates that it prepares for bills. First, as required by rule XI of the House, CBO's cost estimates include, when practicable, a comparison of estimated funding levels for the relevant program (or programs) with the level of spending under current law. For mandatory programs, such as Medicare, that information allows the reader to identify changes in the rate of growth of a program as well as changes from the baseline (see Table 3). Second, in cases in which a bill does not specify the dollar amount of an authorization, CBO projects the level of spending both with and without adjustments for inflation (see Table 4). CBO's baseline projections of discretionary spending are not used in cost estimates of legislation. New authorizations of discretionary spending are compared with existing appropriations and authorizations (or zero if the program is not authorized in a particular year).
 


TABLE 3.
ESTIMATED BUDGETARY EFFECTS OF THE BALANCED BUDGET ACT ON MEDICARE (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Spending Under Current Law
 
Benefit Paymentsa 227.0 248.2 273.0 285.6 313.7
Premiums -21.4 -22.4 -23.4 -24.5 -25.6
 


Total 205.5 225.7 249.5 261.1 288.1
 
Changes in Spending
 
Medicare Provisions (Subtitles A-G)

Benefit paymentsa -6.9 -15.5 -27.6 -17.1 -35.9

Premiums 0.2 -0.9 -2.4 -4.1 -6.2
 


Total -6.7 -16.4 -30.0 -21.2 -42.1
 
Medicaid and PACE Provisions (Subtitles H-I)

Benefit payments and low-income premium assistance 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
 
Spending Under the Balanced Budget Act
 
Benefit Payments and Low-Income Premium Assistancea 220.7 233.4 246.3 269.5 278.9
Premiums -21.2 -23.4 -25.8 -28.6 -31.8
 


Total 199.5 210.0 220.4 241.0 247.1

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office, Budgetary Implications of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, CBO Memorandum (December 1997).
NOTE: PACE = Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly.
a. Includes mandatory administrative costs.

 

TABLE 4.
ILLUSTRATIVE COST ESTIMATE (By fiscal year, in millions of dollars)


1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Spending Under Current Law

Estimated Budget Authoritya 167 0 0 0 0 0

Estimated Outlays 231 240 55 8 0 0
 
Without Adjustment for Inflation
 
Proposed Changes

Estimated Authorization Level 0 415 415 415 165 165

Estimated Outlays 0 176 354 407 281 193
 
Spending Under S. 417

Estimated Authorization Levela 167 415 415 415 165 165

Estimated Outlays 231 417 409 415 281 193
 
With Adjustment for Inflation
 
Proposed Changes

Estimated Authorization Level 0 425 436 447 184 189

Estimated Outlays 0 180 367 431 302 214
 
Spending Under S. 417

Estimated Authorization Levela 167 425 436 447 184 189

Estimated Outlays 231 421 422 439 302 214

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office cost estimate for S. 417 as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on May 21, 1997.
a. The 1997 level is the net amount appropriated for that year.

Other criticisms of the baseline are more political than technical in nat

Posted via email from Global Politics

Is Suicide the Unforgivable Sin?

---by Billy Graham

Q: My uncle had a lot of mental problems most of his life, and they finally overwhelmed him and he killed himself. It's been very hard on his family, but one of the hardest things is that someone at the visitation told them that suicide is the unforgivable sin. Is it? -- Mrs. M.F.

A: Whenever I answer a question about suicide, I'm always aware that someone who's thinking about ending their life might be reading it, and would misunderstand my answer. Let me be clear: Suicide is never God's will, and the Bible's command telling us not to commit murder includes not murdering ourselves (see Exodus 20:13).

Nevertheless, God knew your uncle's mental distress and confusion -- and no, suicide is not the unforgivable sin that Jesus mentioned. Suicide is serious (as I have said) -- and it's especially so when the person has never faced his or her need for God, and turned to Jesus Christ for forgiveness. But God alone knows their heart, and He alone -- not us -- is their judge.

What is the unforgivable sin? Jesus defined it this way: "Every sin and blasphemy will be forgiven men, but the blasphemy against the Spirit will not be forgiven" (Matthew 12:31). We blaspheme against the Holy Spirit when we declare that His witness to Jesus Christ is false, and we reject it. It is the sin of denying the Holy Spirit's witness to Jesus Christ as our Savior and Lord.

Ask God to make you more sensitive to those around you who may be going through hard times, and may even be wondering if life is worth living. Then ask Him to help you point them to Jesus Christ, who loves them and can give them hope -- for today, and for all eternity.

Posted via email from Religion

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

A Woman's New-found Moisturizer

I have been buying grape-seed oil at Costco for quite a while now – I love it for cooking as it has such a high smoke point.  And now it’s my daily moisturizer too.  A little goes a long way, and it doesn’t leave my skin feeling greasy or sticky at all; it soaks in within just a few minutes.  It has a very neutral fragrance that pretty much disappears once it soaks in, and best of all, it works!  No more dry skin.

Instead of buying a tiny little bottle labeled as a moisturizer, I just refill the one I have from my giant jug in the kitchen.  Definitely my current favorite personal care product: inexpensive, easy to use, no greasy legs, and no questionable ingredients.

Posted via email from Kleerstreem's Posterous

Leading With Passion


by John J. Murphy
Light a match in a dark room and watch as the light instantly overcomes the darkness. Observe the power and grace of that single, solitary flame dancing with life. Now light several candles or kindle a fire and experience the added warmth and comfort extending from that first, vulnerable flame through others. This is the heart and soul of leadership - the essence of inspiring others. It is about courageously casting off fear, doubt and limiting beliefs and giving people a sense of hope, optimism and accomplishment. It is about bringing light into a world of uncertainty and inspiring others to do the same. This is what we call passion, the fire within.

Passion is a heartfelt energy that flows through us, not from us. It fills our hearts when we allow it to and it inspires others when we share it. It is like sunlight flowing through a doorway that we have just opened. It was always there. It just needed to be accepted and embraced. Under the right conditions, this "flow" appears effortless, easy and graceful. It is doing what it is meant to do. It is reminding us that we are meant to be purposeful. We are meant to be positive. We are meant to be passionate. We feel this when we listen to and accept our calling in life. We feel it as inspiration when we open the door of resistance and let it in.

Inspiration springs forth when we allow ourselves to be "in-spirit," aligned with our true essence. Stop and think about it: When you feel truly passionate and inspired about someone or something, what frame of mind are you in? What are you willing to do? What kind of effort are you willing to put forth? How fearful are you? Chances are, you feel motivated to do whatever it takes, without fear or doubt, to turn your vision into reality. You grow in confidence. You believe you can do it. You are committed from the heart and soul.

The purpose of this book is to clarify and offer ten key factors for leading with passion and inspiring peak performance. These "essentials" serve to guide and remind leaders how they can "open the door" and facilitate flow. By practicing these essentials, you will tap the extraordinary potential in yourself and others and realize results you may never have dreamed possible. Look to any inspiring leader and you will see these key factors in action. Observe the best of the best and you will witness the power of passionate leadership. Make no mistake - leading with passion inspires world change. It is the only thing that ever really has.

Use this book - and these essentials - to:

Clarify purpose, context and meaning

Create a compelling vision to focus intention and attention

Gain commitment from the heart, not just agreement from the head

Set priorities and focus efforts on what matters most

Recognize and accept the power of grace

Foster more creativity and innovation

Demonstrate integrity and build trust

Lead by passionate example

Generate growth in yourself and others

Awaken the Spirit in work

Margaret Mead said, "Never doubt that a small group of committed people can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

Posted via email from Kleerstreem's Posterous